As Canada heads into a pivotal federal election, climate change—once a dominant issue for voters—has largely slipped from the national agenda. Instead, the conversation has shifted toward economic concerns, energy security, and managing relations with the United States. The two leading candidates are now placing greater emphasis on fossil fuel development, reflecting a dramatic shift in political tone compared to previous elections.
From Climate Priority to Energy Pragmatism
In a not-so-distant election, both major parties in Canada aligned on the urgency of addressing climate change. A national net-zero emissions law had just been passed, and public pressure pushed climate action to the forefront of policy discussions. That consensus, however, has eroded.
Now, the political landscape has changed. The Liberal Party, under newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney, and the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, are both leaning into plans for expanding Canada’s energy infrastructure. This includes conventional oil and gas, as well as select investments in green energy. The transition signals a broader shift in priorities among Canadians, as environmental concerns have been overtaken by rising anxieties over inflation, housing costs, and global instability.
Despite Carney’s internationally recognized background in climate advocacy, his first major decision as prime minister was the repeal of the consumer carbon levy—a central policy tool once championed by his own party. This tax had aimed to reduce individual fossil fuel use, but its unpopularity, fueled by a rising cost of living, made it a political liability.
The Fossil Fuel Focus
Both leading parties are now proposing to fast-track energy corridors and revive interest in pipeline projects—initiatives that would help Canada export oil and gas beyond its traditional U.S. market. This comes as Canada seeks to reposition itself globally amid geopolitical shifts and rising demand for secure sources of energy and critical minerals.
Carney is presenting a dual-energy vision: making Canada a global superpower in both clean and conventional energy. His platform emphasizes a pragmatic approach, promoting investments in carbon capture technologies and accelerating green infrastructure projects like renewable transport and energy-efficient buildings. However, his messaging remains vague, possibly to avoid alienating either environmental voters or economic pragmatists.
Poilievre, meanwhile, is running a campaign centered on affordability and law and order, appealing to voters in Canada’s energy-rich regions. His policies aim to eliminate the industrial carbon tax and significantly expand oil and gas development. Although he hasn’t explicitly committed to Canada’s net-zero targets, he promotes Canadian oil and gas as cleaner alternatives to coal in fast-growing economies like India. His stance appears to resonate with a public increasingly concerned about job security and economic stability.
Energy, Economics, and U.S. Relations
A major driver behind the renewed focus on fossil fuels is Canada’s evolving relationship with the United States. As the country’s largest foreign oil supplier, Canada sends the majority of its crude south of the border. Uncertainty over U.S. policy—especially under a potentially confrontational administration—has intensified concerns about economic vulnerability and national energy security.
Both Liberals and Conservatives are now re-examining past pipeline projects that were previously shelved due to regional opposition and environmental concerns. Among them is a revived interest in projects that would move western Canadian oil to eastern ports, opening access to international markets. These proposals are now being framed not only as economic opportunities but as strategic necessities in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Climate Commitments in Question
Despite the renewed political focus on energy expansion, Canada remains bound by international climate commitments to reduce emissions. The country has pledged to cut carbon output by nearly half compared to earlier benchmarks, yet progress has been slow. Emissions have only seen a modest decline, leaving a significant gap between promises and reality.
While the two frontrunners in this election promote economic growth through fossil fuel development, their platforms raise serious questions about how Canada will meet its environmental obligations. The tension between expanding traditional energy sectors and achieving climate goals is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile.
Even amid record-breaking natural disasters and rising costs linked to extreme weather, climate change has lost its urgency in political discourse. Public concern has shifted, and with it, the strategies of the major parties. Other political voices have attempted to revive climate as a central issue, warning of the dangers of neglecting long-term environmental consequences, but their impact remains limited in the broader election narrative.
Looking Ahead
As Canadians prepare to vote, the choice is no longer simply about climate action versus climate denial. Instead, it has become a contest between two visions of how Canada should position itself in an uncertain world—economically, geopolitically, and environmentally. With energy now at the heart of both campaigns, the next federal government will face the daunting task of balancing national security, economic growth, and climate responsibility in an increasingly complex global landscape.