Americans are increasingly opting for buses and trains over planes for Thanksgiving travel as the aviation system struggles with mass cancellations and lengthening security lines during the U.S. government shutdown.
Travel search engine Wanderu reports combined bus and rail bookings up 12% year on year for the holiday period, with certain departure dates showing 20%–30% gains. Demand is concentrated on routes feeding large metro areas and their suburbs, including St. Louis, New York City, and Washington, D.C., where travelers are reshuffling plans to avoid airport disruptions.
The shift to ground transport coincides with a wave of trip cancellations by flyers unwilling to gamble on airport wait times or last-minute schedule changes. Although the U.S. Senate has moved to reopen the government, industry officials caution that air operations will not normalize immediately, reinforcing the appeal of road and rail alternatives for families keen to lock in Thanksgiving itineraries.
Air Travel Disruptions and Policy Context
Airline operations have endured their worst disruptions since the shutdown began on October 1. On Sunday, carriers canceled roughly 2,950 flights and delayed nearly 11,200 more; on Monday, about 2,400 flights were canceled with over 9,500 delays nationwide. The figures underscore pressure on staffing and air-traffic management and suggest TSA checkpoint queues may remain elevated even as lawmakers move to restore funding. For many travelers, the statistics have become a signal to seek more predictable ground options.
Federal capacity limits are adding to the strain. Government-mandated flight reductions are set to rise to 6% on Tuesday at 40 major airports, with cuts expected to deepen to 10% by November 14. Trade group Airlines for America says member carriers have seen a drop-off in passenger bookings amid the uncertainty. The group has urged customers to keep existing itineraries where possible while airlines work through the backlog, but many holiday travelers are hedging with bus or rail tickets.
Operators Add Capacity, Prices Climb
Ground operators say they are adding seats to meet the surge. Flix North America, which operates the continent’s largest intercity bus network and owns Greyhound, reports a spike in searches around peak holiday windows—Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday return. CEO Kai Boysan said the company is monitoring demand closely and is prepared to add capacity where needed “to ensure people can keep moving.” Megabus likewise reported a notable pickup in purchases beginning last week as air travelers sought backup options.
Rail is experiencing a similar pattern. Amtrak says it anticipates a record-breaking Thanksgiving 2025, citing double-digit growth in early bookings compared with last year. To accommodate demand, the railroad is expanding capacity on Northeast Regional routes connecting Boston, New York, and Washington. During Thanksgiving week in 2024, more than 1.2 million passengers traveled on Amtrak, a benchmark the company expects to surpass this year as flyers look for reliability and downtown-to-downtown convenience.
Higher demand is pushing up prices. Over the past week, average bus fares have climbed about 11% and train tickets about 10% from the prior two weeks, according to Wanderu. Travelers who booked early, avoided roughly a 16% increase in typical bus fares over the past month, highlighting how quickly prices have adjusted as capacity tightens. The acceleration in ground-travel pricing mirrors the scramble across modes as consumers reposition for the holiday.
Booking Trends Signal Changing Choices
Not everyone is abandoning the skies. Aviation analytics firm Cirium said Thanksgiving flight bookings were 2.2% above 2024 levels as of October 31, but by November 7 the lead had narrowed to 0.96%, reflecting the drag from cancellations and the prospect of deeper government-driven capacity cuts. That volatility is nudging some travelers to scale back plans entirely. “It would be easier to say no to Thanksgiving this year,” said Harry Cooke, 28, who normally flies to Boston to visit family but is weighing whether to skip the trip rather than face unpredictable airport conditions.
Booking data also show travelers stretching distances by rail. Wanderu has seen elevated train-ticket purchases for trips over 200 miles, indicating some passengers are switching from short-haul flights to longer-haul trains when schedules and prices align. With airport waits still high and flight cuts slated to widen through mid-November, platforms expect momentum for ground options to persist into the peak travel window. Industry groups, meanwhile, continue to encourage passengers to monitor carrier notices and allow more time at airports as airlines attempt to restore normal operations ahead of the holiday.
