As the Cannes Film Festival comes to a close, the first major signs of awards season are already taking shape. The festival has often served as an early launchpad for future Oscar nominees, and this year’s lineup includes a mix of political dramas, emotional indies, historical epics and international thrillers that could soon enter the Academy Awards conversation.
Cannes Once Again Opens the Oscar Race
For years, Cannes has been more than a glamorous festival on the French Riviera. It has become one of the first serious testing grounds for films that later dominate awards season. Recent Cannes selections such as Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, The Substance, Emilia Pérez and Anora helped prove that a strong May premiere can build momentum all the way to Oscar night.
This year, nine films have emerged as early contenders, each offering the kind of bold storytelling, strong performances or timely themes that Academy voters often notice.
Fjord Turns Controversy Into Awards Heat
Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord won Cannes’ top prize, the Palme d’Or, even after receiving what many described as mixed reviews. Still, its subject matter may make it impossible for Oscar voters to ignore.
Starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, the drama follows an evangelical couple who move from Romania to Norway and face accusations of child abuse after slapping their children as discipline. The film becomes a tense debate about Christianity, secularism, conservative tradition and progressive liberalism. Whether praised or criticized, Fjord seems built to spark conversation, and that alone could help it in the Oscar race.
Club Kid Brings New York Indie Energy Back
One of the few American films at Cannes, Club Kid quickly became a festival highlight. Written and directed by Jordan Firstman, who also stars, the film follows a wild party animal whose life changes when he meets the 10-year-old son, played by Reggie Absolom, he never knew he had.
The movie has been compared to Anora, partly because it shares producer Alex Coco and partly because it blends raunchy comedy with emotional warmth. Its New York setting, sharp wit and unexpected tenderness may not make it the favorite for best picture, but it could still become a serious player in several Oscar categories.
La Bola Negra Restores Hidden Histories
Spanish drama La Bola Negra, also known as The Black Ball, has many of the qualities the Academy often responds to: historical scale, emotional weight, period detail and literary ambition.
Directed by Javier Calvi and Javier Ambrossi, known as Los Javis, the film moves between three timelines, two set in the 1930s and one in 2017. Its central focus is the erasure of gay relationships from Spanish history. With wartime scenes that recall grand romantic dramas and standout cameos from Penélope Cruz as a music-hall bombshell and Glenn Close as a pioneering academic, the film has the kind of international prestige that could attract Oscar attention.
All of a Sudden Tests Patience, Then Breaks Hearts
Ryusuke Hamaguchi already knows the Oscar race. His Drive My Car won best international feature in 2022 and was also nominated for best picture. His new film, Soudain, or All of a Sudden, may follow a similar path.
Set mostly in Paris, the drama stars Virginie Efira as the director of a nursing home who meets a Japanese playwright, played by Tao Okamoto, who is living with terminal cancer. At three-and-a-quarter hours, including a long lecture on capitalism and demographics, the film may be challenging for some viewers. But its emotional payoff could make it unforgettable for those who stay with it.
Rami Malek Finds a New Showcase in The Man I Love
Rami Malek has had fewer major awards vehicles since winning the Oscar for Bohemian Rhapsody in 2019, but The Man I Love could change that.
In Ira Sachs’ indie drama, Malek plays Jimmy George, a charismatic gay singer with AIDS in late 1980s New York. Unlike Freddie Mercury, Jimmy is not a global superstar. He is part of a group of friends preparing an off-Broadway show, while his partner, played by Tom Sturridge, and his sister, played by Rebecca Hall, realize this may be his final moment on stage. The role gives Malek room for vulnerability, charm and emotional force, all qualities that could bring him back into the awards conversation.
A Man of His Time Examines Ordinary Complicity
Emmanuel Marre’s Notre Salut, or A Man of His Time, offers a chilling portrait of ambition under dictatorship. The drama is based on Marre’s own great-grandfather, Henri Marre, played by Swann Arlaud.
After German forces conquer France during World War II, Henri works his way into a bureaucratic role in Marshal Pétain’s Vichy regime. He sees himself as a patriot helping rebuild France through modern management ideas, while ignoring his role in collaboration with the Nazis and the persecution of Jewish citizens. With naturalistic performances, intimate camerawork and surprising bursts of 1980s music, the film argues that horrific systems can be supported by ordinary people chasing career success.
The Beloved Gives Javier Bardem an Oscar-Worthy Role
The Academy has often embraced films about filmmaking, and El ser querido, or The Beloved, could benefit from that tradition.
Javier Bardem stars as a respected director who hires his own daughter, played by Victoria Luengo, to lead his historical epic, Desert. At first, she sees the role as a major opportunity. But once production begins, she realizes her father treats her with the same harsh temper he directs at the rest of the cast. The film echoes father-daughter dramas like Sentimental Value, but Bardem’s fiery performance gives it a distinct awards-season hook.
Moulin Turns Resistance Into a Stark Thriller
László Nemes, who won the best foreign language film Oscar for Son of Saul, returns to World War II with Moulin. The film is based on the true story of French Resistance leader Jean Moulin, played by Gilles Lellouche.
After being arrested in Lyon, Moulin is interrogated by Gestapo commander Klaus Barbie, played by Lars Eidinger. The film combines the mood of a noir espionage thriller with a dark study of evil and a tribute to resistance. Its difficult subject matter may make it a demanding watch, but its performances and historical power could make it hard for awards voters to dismiss.
Minotaur Blends Crime, Marriage and Politics
Andrey Zvyagintsev has already earned Oscar nominations before, but Minotaur may be his most accessible contender yet. The film remakes Claude Chabrol’s The Unfaithful Wife, previously remade in the U.S. as Unfaithful.
This version follows a businessman, played by Dmitriy Mazurov, who discovers that his wife, played by Iris Lebedeva, is having an affair. On the surface, it works as a Hitchcock-style crime thriller: tense, dark and tightly characterized. But Zvyagintsev adds political weight by setting the story in a Russian city, where the husband is an oligarch living in luxury while his employees are sent to fight in Ukraine.
A Festival Lineup Built for Debate
This year’s Cannes lineup may not offer one obvious Oscar frontrunner yet, but it has plenty of films with the ingredients awards voters often reward: major performances, historical scope, political relevance, emotional intensity and bold international storytelling. From Fjord to Minotaur, these nine films show that the road to the Academy Awards may have already begun on the Croisette.
