Global cocoa markets have eased sharply from last year’s extremes, but the pullback is coming after an unusually volatile period for the commodity that underpins most chocolate. Cocoa futures had more than doubled in 2024 amid insufficient rainfall and crop disease across West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa, according to reporting and market analysis cited in the industry.
Conditions have since improved in key producing countries, including Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, while production has also expanded in Ecuador and other origins, an outlook highlighted in J.P. Morgan’s analysis. The result has been a significant increase in expected supply, one factor pushing cocoa prices lower.
At the same time, demand has cooled as higher shelf prices have changed purchasing behavior. NIQ data cited in recent reporting show that U.S. annual retail chocolate sales rose 6.7% in 2025, largely because of price increases, even as unit volume fell 1.3%, indicating shoppers bought fewer individual chocolate items overall.
Retail Chocolate Prices Keep Climbing
For consumers shopping for Valentine’s Day gifts, the easing in cocoa has not translated into cheaper heart-shaped boxes. In the U.S., retail chocolate prices rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Datasembly. That followed another 7.8% rise over the same early-year window in 2025.
In Europe, price pressures have also remained elevated. In Germany, chocolate prices increased 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures cited in the same report.
Industry observers point to a lag between commodity prices and what shoppers pay at the register. Food industry analyst Chris Costagli has compared the dynamic to how gasoline prices can remain high even after crude oil prices fall, as companies work through inventory and commitments made when costs were higher.
Contracts And Tariffs Add A Second Layer Of Costs
One reason chocolate prices can lag behind cocoa markets is the procurement structure. Major manufacturers often rely on longer-term arrangements, including contracts that can lock in costs above current market levels, limiting the immediate benefit of a commodity downturn. The system also reflects risk management: cocoa markets can reverse quickly if weather deteriorates or demand rebounds, making companies cautious about cutting prices too aggressively.
Trade policy has added another variable for U.S. pricing. Reporting cites tariffs averaging 15% imposed last February on cocoa-producing countries, which raised the cost of U.S. cocoa imports, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assessment referenced in that coverage. Those tariffs were later removed in November for commodities not grown domestically, including cocoa, but tariffs of 15% or more on some goods from the European Union, including chocolates, remained in place.
Shoppers Trade Up, Trade Down, Or Switch Categories
With price sensitivity rising, purchasing patterns have become more polarized. In the U.S., two segments gained ground last year: value brands and super-premium brands, according to Costagli’s assessment cited in recent reporting.
On the premium end, brands such as Ferrero Rocher, Justin’s, and Lindt Excellence benefited in part because their price points were already higher, making cocoa-driven increases less jarring relative to the baseline. As mainstream makers such as The Hershey Company and Mars raised prices, some shoppers opted to spend a bit more for perceived quality attributes such as organic or fair-trade positioning.
At the other end, consumers looking to cut spending shifted toward lower-cost options, including brands like Whitman’s and store-label assortments, where the savings from switching can be more noticeable when mainstream prices rise. Some manufacturers have also adjusted product strategies by reducing chocolate content or leaning into alternatives, such as gummy candies, to maintain price points, reflecting the broader effort to balance input costs with what buyers will accept.
For large multinational players, the pricing recalibration is already visible in some markets. Mondelez International raised prices 8% globally in 2025 to offset cocoa inflation, then reduced prices in some European markets after steeper increases led to a more pronounced drop in volumes. Its CEO, Dirk Van de Put, said the company had adjusted to keep products at “the right price point” in markets including the United Kingdom and Germany, while signaling no immediate price cuts in North America, where volume losses were described as more moderate.
