Shares of major U.S. energy companies rose Monday after President Donald Trump said the United States plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry and rely on American companies to help restore production following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The market response lifted a broad range of oil-linked stocks, with investors focusing on whether policy could eventually open access to a country that sits on the world’s largest oil reserves.
Analysts said the announcement is unlikely to move crude prices immediately because oil markets are widely viewed as well supplied. Still, traders interpreted the comments as a possible long-term change to supply expectations and geopolitics if Washington can shape investment and exports from Venezuela’s damaged petroleum system.
Trump’s remarks also emphasized political leverage. While traveling Sunday, he said he wanted Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to provide “total access” to the country, according to AP. That framing reinforced that the equity move was tied not only to commodity fundamentals, but also to uncertainty over governance, security, and how any transition would be managed.
JPMorgan Flags A Potential Shift In Market Power
In a note released Monday, analysts at JPMorgan wrote that U.S. control of Venezuela’s energy sector could “reshape the balance of power in international energy markets.” The bank said that if reserve figures were consolidated under U.S. influence, the United States could be associated with roughly 30% of global oil reserves, which it described as a notable change in energy dynamics.
The analysis also pointed to America’s existing production strength after the shale boom and to the region’s expanding oil footprint, including large offshore discoveries in nearby Guyana that are largely controlled by ExxonMobil and Chevron. Against that backdrop, higher Venezuelan output—if it materializes—could become another source of influence over future market trends.
A Rebuild Would Take Time And Major Investment
Venezuela’s oil industry is widely described as being in disrepair after years of neglect and the effects of international sanctions. Some market watchers believe the country could double or even triple output from about 1.1 million barrels per day and move back toward historic production levels, but other analysts caution that reaching those levels would require large spending and a stable operating environment.
William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann warned that political and operational risks, along with today’s relatively low oil prices, could keep big U.S. companies from committing “anytime soon,” adding that meaningful change would require extensive infrastructure improvements. Raymond James analyst John Freeman highlighted further unknowns, such as how quickly a government transition could take hold and how willing multinational firms would be to reenter.
The broader price backdrop is also a constraint. The AP report said U.S. crude prices were down about 20% from a year earlier, with benchmark U.S. crude not holding above $70 since June and not reaching $80 since the summer of 2024—levels that can affect corporate appetite for high-risk, capital-intensive projects.
A Reuters analysis published Tuesday described the opportunity for U.S. producers as a potential “poisoned chalice,” citing instability and the higher costs often associated with Venezuela’s predominantly heavy crude.
Heavy Crude And Diesel Drive The Biggest Winners
The sharpest early gains appeared in parts of the sector most exposed to the type of oil Venezuela produces. Venezuela is known for heavy crude, a feedstock used for products such as diesel and asphalt. AP noted that diesel has been in relatively short supply globally amid sanctions affecting exports from Venezuela and Russia, and that lighter U.S. crude is not always an easy replacement for refineries configured to run heavier blends.
At the opening bell, major refiners Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 rose roughly 5% to 6%. Oilfield service firms SLB and Halliburton climbed about 7% to 8%, and large oil producers including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips gained around 2% to 4%.
The rally came as investors weighed how quickly any policy shift could translate into barrels. Oil has shown it can reprice rapidly in periods of stress; AP noted that crude traded above $130 per barrel in the run-up to the 2008 U.S. housing crisis, underscoring the sensitivity of energy assets to supply expectations and geopolitics.
