Barclays has sharply reduced its peak sales estimate for Novo Nordisk’s next-generation obesity treatment CagriSema, cutting the forecast to US$2 billion from US$12 billion, according to a Reuters report published on February 24, 2026. The revision represents a reduction of more than 80% and reflects a rapid reassessment of the drug’s commercial prospects after new late-stage trial data.
The downgrade followed results released by Novo Nordisk a day earlier, which analysts viewed as a setback in the company’s effort to defend its position in the fast-growing obesity drug market. CagriSema had been widely seen as a potential follow-on product to Wegovy, one of Novo’s most important growth drivers, but the latest data prompted several banks to question whether the drug can compete at the level previously expected.
Reuters also reported that analysts at Jefferies and other firms echoed concerns about the drug’s commercial potential after reviewing the study results. That broad reaction from the analyst community added to investor concern and amplified the market response.
Trial Data Underscores Lilly’s Market Lead
The pressure on Novo intensified because the new data not only disappointed on a standalone basis but also strengthened the perceived advantage of Eli Lilly’s rival obesity medicine, Zepbound. Reuters reported that CagriSema underperformed against Lilly’s treatment in the comparison that investors were watching most closely.
According to Reuters coverage of the trial results, CagriSema produced a 23% reduction in body weight over 84 weeks, while tirzepatide, sold as Zepbound for weight loss in the United States, showed 25.5% weight reduction in the referenced study comparison. Analysts and investors treated that gap as strategically important in a market where efficacy and physician confidence can shape prescribing patterns at scale.
Reuters further noted that some analysts viewed the outcome as especially damaging because the trial appeared to suggest Lilly’s performance was stronger than parts of Lilly’s earlier published data had implied. That interpretation has reinforced the view that Lilly is widening its lead as competition in obesity care becomes more crowded and more data-driven.
The obesity drug segment remains one of the most closely watched areas in global pharmaceuticals, with investor expectations tied not only to sales growth but also to pipeline depth. In that context, a weaker-than-expected result from a high-profile successor candidate can have an outsized effect on valuation assumptions.
Shares Swing as Investors Reprice Expectations
The market reaction was immediate. Reuters reported that Novo Nordisk shares fell about 16% after the trial update, while Eli Lilly shares rose roughly 5%. The move reflected a direct repricing of competitive expectations in obesity treatment.
The decline in Novo’s stock was significant enough to erase the remaining gains associated with momentum from Wegovy, according to Reuters. That detail underscored how central pipeline confidence has become to Novo’s investment case, particularly as the company tries to extend its position beyond its current flagship products.
At the same time, the positive move in Lilly’s shares signaled that investors are not only reacting to Novo’s weakness but also assigning greater confidence to Lilly’s ability to maintain pricing power, physician demand, and market share in the obesity category. Reuters’ related reporting described the latest results as another development that “burnishes” Lilly’s widening lead.
Launch Timeline Remains in Focus
Despite the setback, Reuters reported that Novo Nordisk still plans to launch CagriSema next year, contingent on expected U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval by the end of 2026. That means the regulatory timeline remains active even as analysts revise downward their commercial expectations.
The near-term focus for investors is likely to shift toward how Novo positions CagriSema in a market now dominated by stronger efficacy narratives around Lilly’s products, and whether pricing, patient segmentation, or future data can support a more competitive rollout than current forecasts imply. Reuters’ reporting indicates that analysts are increasingly skeptical, but not all uncertainty has been resolved, while regulatory review is still pending.
For the broader sector, the episode highlights how quickly expectations can change in obesity therapeutics when late-stage data fall short of market assumptions. With both companies under intense scrutiny and demand for obesity medicines still expanding, upcoming regulatory and commercial decisions will remain a central focus for healthcare investors.
