S&P Global has experienced a remarkable surge over the past five years, with its stock climbing 80% and reaching near-record highs. The financial services provider has demonstrated resilience amid macroeconomic fluctuations, maintaining a strong foothold in the credit rating and financial analytics industry. As it integrates artificial intelligence into its offerings and benefits from an improving economic landscape, projections suggest the company’s stock could continue its upward trajectory over the next five years.
Steady Growth and Market Dominance
S&P Global operates in a near-duopoly with Moody’s, serving a vast client base that includes all Fortune 100 companies and 80% of Fortune 500 firms. Its services extend to major banks, insurance firms, corporations, universities, and institutional investors, positioning the company as a critical player in financial data and risk assessment.
Between 2019 and 2024, S&P Global’s revenue grew at an annualized rate of 16%, while earnings per share (EPS) increased at an 8% CAGR. However, the increase in interest rates during 2022 and 2023 reduced corporate debt issuance, slowing the company’s credit ratings business and temporarily impacting its profitability. The sale of its Engineering Solutions segment in 2023 further impacted earnings, but by 2024, the company had fully adjusted to these changes, and net profits rebounded as interest rates declined.
To strengthen its market position, S&P Global has been integrating AI-driven features, such as the Spark Assist AI copilot, to enhance efficiency and automation in its services. This technological shift is expected to provide a competitive advantage in financial analytics and credit assessment.
Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
Projections for 2025 indicate continued growth, with revenue expected to rise between 5% and 7%. EPS is forecast to increase significantly, with GAAP EPS estimated to grow between 73% and 76%, while non-GAAP EPS—excluding the impact of divestitures and one-time expenses—is projected to rise by 35% to 37%.
S&P Global’s valuation remains elevated, with its stock trading at 37 times its projected GAAP EPS and 31 times its expected non-GAAP EPS for 2025. Despite these high multiples, analysts anticipate robust earnings expansion in the coming years, supported by declining interest rates and a stabilizing macroeconomic environment.
From 2024 to 2027, S&P Global’s revenue is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR, with GAAP EPS increasing at a 14% annualized rate. If the company maintains its dominant position in credit ratings and financial analytics while sustaining a 10% EPS CAGR from 2027 to 2031, its stock could see substantial gains.
Based on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 35, S&P Global’s stock price could reach approximately $931 per share by 2030, representing a 75% increase from current levels. Even under a more conservative scenario with a lower forward P/E of 25, the stock could still rise 25% to around $665 per share.
Shareholder Returns and Dividend Stability
In addition to its growth prospects, S&P Global has maintained a strong shareholder return strategy. The company repurchased $3.3 billion worth of shares in 2024 and is likely to continue buybacks, further boosting EPS in the coming years.
S&P Global also remains a reliable dividend payer, boasting 51 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. Despite its low 0.7% forward dividend yield, the company has maintained a conservative payout ratio, using only 20% of its free cash flow for dividends over the past year. This leaves room for potential increases in the dividend payout, providing long-term value to shareholders.
A Balanced Investment Opportunity
S&P Global’s combination of market leadership, stable earnings growth, and technological advancements positions it as a strong long-term investment. While it is not a high-growth stock that will double or triple in value overnight, it provides balanced exposure to the expanding credit rating, financial analytics, and AI-driven financial services sectors.
With a favorable economic outlook, continued AI integration, and a disciplined approach to shareholder returns, S&P Global appears well-positioned to deliver steady gains over the next five years. Investors seeking a resilient stock with a history of growth and a strong competitive edge may find it a compelling addition to their portfolios.