President Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long rule is facing an existential crisis as insurgents make significant gains on the ground, drawing closer to the capital, Damascus. A series of successful offensives by opposition forces have created an unprecedented situation where the once formidable regime is now grappling with the possibility of collapse. Having withstood more than a decade of civil war, Assad’s government now finds itself on the defensive as critical cities such as Homs and Aleppo fall to the insurgents, marking a turning point in the Syrian conflict.
The loss of Homs, a strategic city that links Damascus to Syria’s coastal regions, including Latakia and Tartus, has been a devastating blow for Assad. The coastal provinces are of immense importance to the regime, with Tartus housing a key Russian naval base.
Rami Abdurrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, noted the withdrawal of government forces from Homs, calling it a significant turning point for the opposition. This defeat has strengthened the insurgents’ momentum, providing them with new opportunities to undermine Assad’s control over the country.
The Battle for Damascus: A City on Edge
As insurgents advance toward Damascus, the capital has been gripped by panic and uncertainty. Residents have rushed to secure basic necessities, with prices soaring for essential goods like sugar, as shortages loom. Shops have closed, and thousands of people have fled to neighboring Lebanon, fearing that the capital may soon become the scene of fierce battles. This is the first time since 2018 that opposition forces have reached the outskirts of Damascus, and the atmosphere in the city is one of heightened anxiety.
One resident described the strange and unsettling atmosphere as the insurgents’ approach draws nearer. “We are not used to this,” they remarked, pointing to the pervasive sense of fear and confusion among the city’s population. The possibility of all-out conflict in the capital has become a very real concern, signaling the deepening instability that now threatens the heart of Assad’s regime.
A Rapid and Unforeseen Rebel Offensive
The insurgency, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has made significant territorial gains in an exceptionally short period. Since launching their campaign on November 27, the rebels have seized vital areas such as Aleppo, Hama, and southern provinces including Quneitra and Sweida. The speed and scale of the advances have taken many by surprise, dramatically altering the balance of power in the ongoing civil war.
HTS, which has been seeking to rebrand itself by distancing from its al-Qaida roots, has been at the forefront of the insurgency. Their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made efforts to present the group as a more politically moderate force. Despite these attempts at rebranding, opposition commanders such as Hassan Abdul-Ghani have made it clear that the insurgents are in the final stages of their offensive, with Damascus now fully encircled by rebel forces. The situation is dire for the regime, as these advances threaten to leave it with little room for maneuver.
Diplomatic Efforts and Global Reactions
As the Syrian crisis intensifies, diplomatic efforts have become more urgent. During the Doha Summit, foreign ministers from influential regional powers, including Iran, Russia, and Turkey, gathered to discuss the escalating conflict. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s Foreign Minister, condemned Assad for missing the opportunity to engage in constructive dialogue with the Syrian population. He cautioned that continued inaction would only lead to further devastation and stressed the need for a political solution to prevent the country’s collapse.
The United Nations also echoed these calls for diplomacy, with special envoy Geir Pedersen stressing the need for urgent political talks. Pedersen described the ongoing violence as a “real threat” to Syria’s territorial integrity, underscoring the critical need for all sides to come to the table before the country is plunged further into chaos. The international community remains divided, but the growing pressure on Assad and his allies is undeniable.
A Nation at the Crossroads of History
As the insurgents make steady progress, Assad’s regime is facing increasing pressure from both internal and external forces. Russia, once a crucial ally, is now distracted by its own war in Ukraine, weakening its support for the Syrian government. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional influence has also waned, and Hezbollah, a key supporter of Assad, has been stretched thin by conflicts in other areas. These shifting dynamics signal that the regime’s ability to maintain power is rapidly diminishing.
The Syrian people have borne the brunt of the conflict for years, and as the situation grows more dire, the need for a political resolution has become more urgent. Sheikh Mohammed’s warning at the Doha Summit serves as a sobering reminder that without swift and decisive action, Syria may face even greater destruction. The coming months will determine whether a lasting political solution can be achieved or whether the country will continue to spiral further into chaos.