The European Union is expanding its peacekeeping force in Bosnia and Herzegovina following escalating tensions caused by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik’s defiance of state institutions. His recent actions have raised fears of separatism, drawing strong opposition from both the EU and the United States. With concerns growing over the stability of the region, the EU is taking steps to prevent further destabilization.
As part of this effort, the European Union Force Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR) will temporarily increase its troop presence. The mission, known as Operation Althea, ensures the enforcement of the peace agreement established after the 1992-1995 Bosnian War. Reports indicate that an additional 400 troops will be deployed, strengthening the current 1,100-strong force. The EU considers this a precautionary measure to maintain security and stability in the region.
Dodik’s Defiance and the Risk of Secession
Milorad Dodik, leader of Republika Srpska, has taken significant steps to reduce Bosnia’s state authority over the Serb-majority region. Following his recent conviction for violating the country’s constitutional order, he imposed a ban on state-level judiciary, security, intelligence, and prosecution institutions within his territory. These actions have been widely interpreted as a direct challenge to Bosnia’s political framework.
Dodik has long threatened secession, claiming that Bosnia’s institutions are illegitimate and biased against Serbs. His latest policies, combined with his history of anti-Western rhetoric, have heightened concerns that Republika Srpska may attempt to separate from Bosnia. The current situation bears similarities to events that led to the Bosnian War, during which more than 100,000 people were killed, including victims of the Srebrenica genocide.
International Response and Russian Backing
The United States and the European Union have strongly condemned Dodik’s actions, warning that they undermine Bosnia’s institutions and threaten regional stability. The situation has drawn international attention, particularly given Bosnia’s status as an EU candidate country since December 2022. Western leaders are concerned that growing separatist ambitions could disrupt Bosnia’s path toward EU integration and reignite ethnic tensions.
Russia, meanwhile, has sided with Dodik, criticizing his conviction as politically motivated. The Russian government convened an emergency UN Security Council session to discuss the matter, reinforcing its alignment with Dodik’s opposition to Western influence in Bosnia. Since escalating its military operations in Ukraine in 2022, Russia has deepened its ties with Dodik, further widening the political divide between Bosnia’s leadership and the West.
Growing Protests and Political Divisions
Dodik’s actions have sparked protests from ultranationalists who support his push for greater autonomy. His measures have also received backing from Republika Srpska’s parliament, which formally passed laws restricting the operations of Bosnia’s state institutions within Serb-majority areas. These legislative moves are seen as steps toward greater political separation, intensifying fears that Bosnia could once again face a deepening ethnic divide.
The situation places Republika Srpska in direct conflict with Bosnia’s power-sharing system, which was established to maintain balance between the country’s three main ethnic groups—Croats, Bosniaks, and Serbs. With tensions escalating, the EU’s decision to increase its military presence reflects growing concerns that the country’s fragile peace could be at risk.
Future Uncertainty and Regional Implications
While the EU’s troop increase aims to prevent escalation, it remains unclear how Dodik and his supporters will respond. His history of anti-Western sentiment and separatist rhetoric suggests that further confrontations with Bosnia’s institutions are likely. The international community will be closely monitoring whether Dodik escalates his defiance or if diplomatic efforts can prevent a full-blown political crisis.
With Bosnia’s EU membership prospects at stake, regional leaders face increasing pressure to prevent another major conflict. As tensions rise, the outcome of this political standoff will not only shape Bosnia’s future but could also influence broader geopolitical dynamics in the Balkans, where ethnic and political divisions remain a persistent source of instability.