High Stakes in an “Off Year”
Americans are heading to the polls today in what is technically an “off-year” election — one without presidential or congressional races. Yet, the results will carry national significance. Voters in New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey are choosing new leaders, while Californians are deciding whether to approve a rare mid-decade redistricting measure that could reshape the political landscape.
From the future of progressive politics in New York to the fate of congressional maps in California, the outcomes could serve as a preview of next year’s midterm elections — and a test of Donald Trump’s continued political influence.
1. New York City Mayoral Race
All eyes are on New York City, where 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist and state assemblyman, is attempting to become the city’s youngest mayor in over a century — and its first Muslim leader.
Mamdani stunned political observers earlier this year when he defeated former governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Cuomo refused to step aside, choosing instead to run as an independent. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa has resisted calls to drop out, keeping the race unpredictable.
Mamdani has built his campaign around cost-of-living issues such as rent, wages, and grocery prices — themes that resonate with younger, working-class voters. Cuomo, backed by conservative Democrats and Trump’s endorsement, has attacked Mamdani on crime and experience. Polls show Mamdani leading narrowly, but the margin has tightened as election day approaches.
2. California’s Redistricting Gamble
In a move without modern precedent, California Governor Gavin Newsom has asked voters to approve Proposition 50 — a measure allowing mid-decade redrawing of congressional districts to counter Republican-led map changes in states like Texas and Missouri.
California normally uses an independent redistricting commission once per decade, but Proposition 50 would allow new maps to be used through 2030. The measure has drawn $158 million in campaign funding, with Democratic donors vastly outspending Republicans.
A University of California Berkeley/IGS poll shows 60 percent of likely voters in favor, and 38 percent opposed, with sharp partisan divides: 93 percent of Democrats support it, while 91 percent of Republicans reject it. If approved, it could help Democrats offset GOP gains in other states and influence control of the U.S. House next year.
3. New Jersey Governor’s Race
New Jersey, typically a Democratic stronghold, has a surprisingly close gubernatorial race between Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman.
Sherrill has the backing of national Democratic figures like Barack Obama and Pete Buttigieg, while Ciattarelli has rallied conservative support, including a virtual appearance by Trump. Both candidates have campaigned aggressively on economic issues, but Ciattarelli has also targeted Sherrill’s experience and policy clarity through attack ads.
Although the state leans blue, its voters have occasionally favored Republican governors — most recently Chris Christie, who served two terms. A Ciattarelli win would signal vulnerability for Democrats heading into 2026.
4. Virginia Governor’s Race
Virginia’s governor’s race is historically a political bellwether, and this year guarantees a historic outcome: the state will elect its first woman governor. Voters are choosing between Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a U.S. congresswoman, and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor.
If Earle-Sears wins, she would become the first Black woman ever elected governor of a U.S. state. Spanberger has focused on the economic fallout from federal spending cuts, while Earle-Sears has leaned on cultural debates and highlighted the state’s economic gains under Republican leadership.
With Virginia split between liberal Washington suburbs and conservative rural regions, this race is seen as a test of both parties’ ability to reach swing voters.
5. The Trump Factor
Though not on the ballot, Donald Trump’s presence looms large across today’s elections. He has endorsed Ciattarelli in New Jersey and supported Cuomo’s independent bid in New York, even warning that New York City could “lose funding” if Mamdani wins.
Trump’s influence also stretches west: his campaign against Democratic redistricting efforts helped spark California’s Proposition 50. The results of tonight’s elections could reveal whether his endorsements still move voters — or if a new generation of candidates, like Mamdani, represents a shifting political tide.