Scientists say a discarded SpaceX rocket stage has crashed into the moon after drifting through space for more than a year. Although the moment of impact was not directly photographed, astronomers detected signs of a debris plume shortly afterward, giving researchers strong confidence that the rocket struck the lunar surface exactly as predicted.
A High Speed Collision Near Einstein Crater
The spent upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was expected to hit the moon on August 5 at roughly 5,400 mph, or 8,700 kph. Scientists had tracked the object as it moved toward a dusty area near Einstein Crater, close to the boundary between the moon’s near and far sides.
The location made the event especially difficult to observe from Earth. No telescope captured a clear image of the collision itself, but researchers say the rocket’s path left little doubt about where it was headed.
Boston University scientist Carl Schmidt said he was “100% certain” that his team’s observations showed evidence of the crash. The European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile detected sodium and lithium extending for miles above the lunar surface for several minutes after the expected impact.
“We don’t have images of the impact,” Schmidt said, but his team did have telescope evidence supporting the conclusion.
A Rocket Left Drifting After a 2025 Mission
The rocket stage had been in space since January 15, 2025, when a Falcon 9 launched two private lunar landers from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
The mission carried Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and Japanese company ispace’s Resilience toward the moon. Blue Ghost later successfully landed, while Resilience crashed during its attempted landing.
After sending the spacecraft toward their destinations, the Falcon 9 upper stage was left drifting through space. The cylinder measured more than 40 feet, or 12 meters, long and weighed roughly 4 tons.
SpaceX’s Julianna Scheiman said the company is working with NASA to prevent similar events in the future. She stressed that the lunar collision was accidental, with solar activity and gravitational forces eventually placing the rocket stage on a path toward the moon.
Scientists Saw the Crash Coming
Researchers had been closely following the rocket before the expected collision. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said observations the night before showed the upper stage traveling directly toward the moon.
“There’s no doubt in my mind,” McDowell told The Associated Press when discussing whether the impact had occurred.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek also tried to observe the collision with his telescope but was unable to detect it. He had warned beforehand that “We knew this would be a long shot.”
Despite the lack of a direct photograph, both scientists remained confident that the rocket reached the lunar surface.
NASA Could Provide the Final Visual Evidence
The clearest confirmation may come from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Scientists expect the spacecraft to eventually pass over the impact area and photograph the newly created crater.
Researchers had already calculated that the rocket would hit close to Einstein Crater, giving NASA a relatively narrow area to examine for changes to the lunar landscape.
Finding the crater would provide another valuable opportunity for scientists to compare predictions with the actual effects of a human made object striking the moon. It could also help researchers improve methods for tracking discarded hardware traveling through the space between Earth and the moon.
Lunar Traffic Raises a Growing Space Debris Problem
The collision also highlights a problem that could become more important as lunar exploration increases. Rocket stages and other discarded spacecraft have reached the moon before, including a rocket body that struck the lunar surface in 2022 and created an unusual double crater.
NASA, private companies and other countries are planning an increasing number of missions around and on the moon. That means scientists expect the region surrounding Earth and its nearest neighbor to become much more crowded.
NASA plans to use robotic missions as part of its effort to establish a sustainable human presence around the moon. SpaceX and Blue Origin are also developing lunar landing systems connected to NASA’s Artemis program.
“Things are going to get a lot busier near the moon,” McDowell said.
As that traffic grows, researchers say accidental impacts could become more serious. Future crashes could disturb large amounts of lunar dust and potentially create risks for spacecraft, scientific equipment or eventually people working on the surface.
A Crash That Could Help Shape Future Lunar Missions
The SpaceX rocket’s journey ended with an accidental collision, but scientists may still gain valuable information from the event. Observations of the debris plume and the eventual crater could help researchers better understand lunar impacts while improving their ability to track abandoned spacecraft.
For now, the available telescope observations and trajectory data have left scientists confident that the Falcon 9 upper stage reached its predicted destination. As activity around the moon increases, the incident is also a reminder that managing old spacecraft and rocket hardware may become an increasingly important part of humanity’s return to the lunar environment.
