After a 43-day federal government shutdown that snarled air travel and strained security staff, the United States is heading into what is expected to be one of its busiest Thanksgiving travel periods on record. Forecasts from AAA indicate that about 81.8 million people in the U.S. will journey at least 50 miles from home between 25 November and 1 December, surpassing last year by roughly 1.6 million travellers and setting a new holiday record.
The shutdown, which ran from 1 October to mid-November, forced airlines to trim schedules at about 40 major airports and left thousands of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers and air traffic controllers working without pay. With funding restored, airlines and federal agencies say staffing and operations have largely stabilised. However, with tens of millions of people taking to the skies and highways over a short window, even a “normal” Thanksgiving is expected to feel extremely crowded.
Highways Braced For Record Congestion
For most travellers, the holiday journey will play out on the road. AAA’s outlook suggests that the number of motorists this year will be about 1.3 million higher than last Thanksgiving, reflecting steady growth in long-distance car travel since the pandemic years. Traffic-data firm INRIX expects the heaviest congestion between 25 and 27 November and again on 30 November, when many travellers are heading home.
The worst periods are forecast to fall in the late morning and afternoon. Analysts recommend that outbound drivers leave before noon on Tuesday 25 November or before 11:00 on Wednesday 26 November to avoid peak traffic, while return journeys are predicted to be slowest from around 11:00 to 20:00 on Sunday 30 November. State-level forecasts show similar patterns: in Texas, for example, AAA expects about 5.8 million residents to travel at least 50 miles, with roughly 5.3 million of them travelling by car.
Airports Prepare For Heavy Passenger Volumes
Although drivers make up the majority of travellers, airports are also preparing for a surge. Airlines for America (A4A) expects U.S. carriers to handle more than 31 million passengers over the broader Thanksgiving window from 21 November to 1 December, averaging about 2.8 million passengers per day – an all-time high for the period. To accommodate demand, airlines plan to offer around 45,000 additional seats per day compared with 2024.
AAA’s forecast suggests that roughly 6 million Americans will fly specifically for Thanksgiving week, about 2% more than last year. Major hubs such as Atlanta, Chicago O’Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth and Miami International Airport are anticipating some of their busiest days of the year, with Miami alone expecting around 1.96 million passengers over the holiday stretch.
The recent shutdown exposed vulnerabilities in the aviation system. At its peak, staffing shortages forced the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to throttle traffic at dozens of airports, leading to thousands of delays nationwide. Airlines have since restored schedules and say they are better prepared, but they are still urging passengers to arrive at least two hours early for domestic flights and three hours early for international departures.
New security procedures may also affect the flow of travellers. TSA has rolled out a “modernised alternative identity verification” programme that allows passengers who arrive without an acceptable ID – such as a passport or REAL ID-compliant licence – to undergo additional checks for a fee of 18 US dollars, valid for 10 days. Officials stress that passing the verification is not guaranteed, and they continue to encourage passengers to carry approved identification to prevent delays at checkpoints.
Lasting Strains On The Transport Network
While transport agencies expect Thanksgiving operations to be smoother than during the shutdown, experts warn that the broader system remains under pressure. The U.S. is currently short by roughly 3,000 air traffic controllers, according to aviation-industry groups and federal assessments, with nearly half of major control facilities reporting staffing gaps.
The controller shortage has been building for more than a decade, driven by periods of frozen hiring, training bottlenecks at the FAA academy and waves of retirements. Shutdowns have compounded the problem by halting recruitment and forcing trainees and experienced staff alike to work without pay, sometimes prompting them to leave the profession altogether. Industry groups say that persistent understaffing contributes to flight delays and increases reliance on mandatory overtime, raising concerns about fatigue in critical safety roles.
For this Thanksgiving, however, forecasts suggest that travellers are more likely to encounter heavy crowds, long queues and congested highways than the cascading cancellations seen during the shutdown. With tens of millions of people on the move over a few days, officials and analysts agree that patience, early planning and flexibility will be key factors in how smoothly the holiday rush unfolds.
