The United States and Russia have taken an unexpected step towards diplomacy, agreeing to work on ending the war in Ukraine and improving their strained relationship. In landmark discussions, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov outlined a roadmap to restore diplomatic missions, advance Ukraine peace talks, and explore economic cooperation. However, Ukraine and European allies have expressed concerns about being sidelined in these negotiations.
Restoring Diplomatic Relations
For years, U.S.-Russia relations have been at historic lows, exacerbated by Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The United States and its allies responded with severe sanctions, leading to the expulsion of diplomats and a diplomatic freeze.
Rubio described the renewed talks as an opportunity to unlock “incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians geopolitically on issues of common interest and, frankly, economically.” Lavrov agreed, calling the conversation “very useful” and emphasizing that both sides were actively listening to each other.
A Path to Peace in Ukraine?
A key outcome of the meeting was the establishment of a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks. However, no Ukrainian representatives were present, raising alarms in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy firmly rejected the talks, stating that Ukraine “wouldn’t accept any outcome” that didn’t involve direct participation from his government.
Despite the diplomatic momentum, the war continues on the battlefield. Russia launched a large-scale drone attack overnight, injuring Ukrainian civilians and causing significant damage to residential areas.
European Concerns Over Exclusion
The U.S.-Russia talks have also unsettled European leaders, who fear being left out of a potential settlement. France convened an emergency EU meeting, where President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that “Russia must end its aggression” and that any peace must include “strong and credible security guarantees for the Ukrainians.”
The shift in U.S. policy stands in contrast to former President Joe Biden’s firm stance on isolating Russia. Under President Donald Trump, however, there appears to be a willingness to negotiate with Moscow.
Saudi Arabia’s Role in the Talks
The meeting took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, underscoring the kingdom’s growing diplomatic influence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to position Saudi Arabia as a mediator, despite previous criticism over human rights issues. The country has previously facilitated prisoner exchanges and played a role in past peace discussions.
Zelenskyy, who was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, postponed his trip to avoid any perceived connection to talks in which Ukraine had no representation.
The Road Ahead
While the discussions mark a significant shift in U.S.-Russia relations, much remains uncertain. A potential summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly in the works, though no date has been confirmed. U.S. officials, including national security adviser Mike Waltz, acknowledge that discussions about territorial concessions and security guarantees will be part of any resolution.
As the war rages on and diplomatic negotiations unfold, the biggest question remains: Can a peace agreement be reached without Ukraine’s full participation?