President Donald Trump is gathering his Cabinet at a fragile moment for negotiations aimed at ending the war with Iran. While Trump has projected confidence that a deal is close, the emerging framework has raised concerns among some Republican allies who fear Tehran could leave the conflict weakened, but politically emboldened. The talks remain fluid, with key questions still unresolved over Iran’s uranium stockpile, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, and Trump’s push to expand the Abraham Accords.
A Cabinet Meeting at a Critical Turning Point
Trump enters Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting looking to frame the negotiations as a path toward victory. His administration wants a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire and support the argument that Iran’s nuclear capability has been reduced enough to end the conflict.
But the president is also facing a political risk. The war has been unpopular among Republicans, and rising costs and fuel prices are adding pressure as the midterm elections come into focus. A deal may offer Trump a way out, but an agreement that delays the hardest questions could also expose him to criticism from both foreign policy hawks and his own supporters.
Rubio Says It Is “A Good Deal or No Deal”
The talks grew more complicated after U.S. forces carried out what the Pentagon described as “defensive” strikes on missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran. Washington said it acted with “restraint” during the ceasefire, while Iran accused the United States of acting in “bad faith and unreliability.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that negotiations over reopening the strait and extending the ceasefire would take several more days. “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal,” Rubio told reporters.
Trump also complained on social media that even if Tehran offered total surrender, the media would describe the result as Iran achieving “a Masterful and Brilliant Victory.”
Republican Allies Warn the Terms May Favor Tehran
Some of Trump’s Republican allies are skeptical of the emerging deal. Sens. Roger Wicker, Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz have raised concerns that the framework could resemble the Iran nuclear agreement reached under former President Barack Obama, which Trump abandoned during his first term.
Under the potential deal, Iran would give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief. Officials familiar with the negotiations said some uranium could be diluted, while the rest could be transferred to a third country during a 60-day period.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran had 440.9 kilograms, or 972 pounds, of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels.
Uranium Stockpile Becomes the Center of the Deal
Trump has softened his earlier demand that the United States directly take control of Iran’s uranium. On Monday, he said the material could either be turned over to the U.S. or “destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event.”
That shift may give negotiators more room to reach an agreement, but it also creates another opening for critics. Iran has not publicly committed to surrendering its uranium, and the technical details of how the stockpile would be removed, diluted or verified remain unresolved.
Lebanon and Hezbollah Complicate the Ceasefire
Another major question is whether the ceasefire would also apply to Israel’s operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has insisted that Lebanon be included in any ceasefire negotiated with Washington.
The emerging memorandum appears to leave room for interpretation. It calls for a ceasefire between the U.S. and its allies against Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, while also underscoring Israel’s right to act against imminent threats and in self-defense.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the Israeli military is “deepening its operation” in Lebanon. Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that sanctions relief could help Iran rebuild its military and support proxy groups.
“We’re not done fighting, because the Iranian regime isn’t done,” Conricus said.
Trump Links the Deal to the Abraham Accords
Trump has also tied the Iran talks to a broader diplomatic goal: expanding the Abraham Accords. He said any agreement to end the war should require several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan, to join the U.S.-brokered normalization agreements with Israel.
That push may be difficult. Saudi Arabia has long insisted that normalization with Israel must include a guaranteed path toward a Palestinian state, a condition Israel strongly opposes.
Barbara Leaf, a retired U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and former senior State Department official, said Gulf officials told her Trump’s pitch was met with “stunned silence.” A person familiar with the call disputed that account and said some regional allies responded positively.
“They see no other way out,” Leaf said of U.S. allies in the region. “And they see no other way out because of many of these early mistakes that the president and the administration made in conducting the war.”
Closing Paragraph
Trump’s effort to end the Iran war now sits at the intersection of diplomacy, domestic politics and regional security. A deal could allow him to claim that he reopened the Strait of Hormuz, limited Iran’s nuclear threat and avoided a longer conflict. But if the agreement leaves too many questions unanswered, especially around uranium, sanctions relief and Iran’s proxy network, Trump may face a different result: an end to the war that does not fully satisfy his allies, his critics or the region he is trying to stabilize.
