Conflicts and Natural Disasters Reshape Global Air Routes
Global skies are growing increasingly fragmented as escalating geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters create vast no-fly zones across critical air corridors. From the Middle East to Eastern Europe, commercial airlines are being forced to reroute, cancel, or significantly delay flights, creating ripple effects across international travel and logistics.
Airspace closures above Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Ukraine have turned large swathes of the global map into aviation voids. These disruptions are now commonplace, with aviation experts warning that the high-altitude calm enjoyed by passengers belies the operational chaos below. For airlines, rerouting around conflict zones isn’t just about safety — it comes with steep financial and logistical costs.
From Ukraine to Iran, Conflict Zones Disrupt Routes
The latest tensions between Israel and Iran, following strikes in mid-June, have triggered immediate airspace shutdowns across multiple countries. FlightRadar24 shows gaping holes where air traffic used to flow freely, with commercial jets now funneled into narrow corridors over Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey.
According to aviation consultant Brendan Sobie, the industry has come to expect such interruptions. “Airspace closures have become quite common,” he told CNN. “It’s almost like the new normal for airlines.” This “new normal” includes ongoing fallout from the war in Ukraine, flare-ups between India and Pakistan, and mounting instability in the Persian Gulf.
Some airlines still fly through Russian airspace, mainly Chinese carriers like Air China and Cathay Pacific, but routes bordering Ukraine remain closed to all commercial traffic. Flights between Asia and Europe are increasingly relying on alternative paths over the Baltic or Central Asia, altering travel times and complicating logistics.
Costs Add Up as Flights Detour Around Danger
These diversions come with high costs. Tony Stanton of Strategic Air in Australia estimates that adding two hours to a long-haul flight — such as between London and Hong Kong — could burn an additional $14,000 in fuel for a Boeing 777. And fuel is only part of the equation.
Carriers must also pay for crew overtime, rerouting fees, and airspace charges from new countries along the detour path. Delays lead to missed connections and sometimes cancellations, eroding both customer satisfaction and profit margins. “The business of running a profitable airline is not easy,” Stanton said.
Increased pressure is also placed on air traffic controllers as more planes are packed into fewer flight paths. Airlines must juggle variables such as altitude, timing, and available take-off and landing slots, many of which come at premium cost. These cascading logistical challenges intensify as the volume of global air traffic rises. In regions like the Persian Gulf, air traffic has tripled in recent years, further tightening available space.
Not All Disruptions Are Manmade
Although wars dominate headlines, natural disasters can be even more disruptive to aviation. A current volcanic eruption near Bali is grounding flights, reminding experts of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, which shut down transatlantic traffic and cost the industry $1.7 billion. Volcanic ash poses a direct threat to jet engines, with silica particles capable of melting and causing engine failure at high altitude.
“The most common other phenomenon impacting air routes is volcanic eruptions,” Stanton noted. With volcanic clouds capable of drifting thousands of miles, a single eruption can affect routes across multiple continents.
The cumulative impact of war and natural disasters underscores the fragility of global aviation. Airline safety departments now operate as real-time crisis centers, constantly evaluating threats and rerouting flights accordingly. “Even airspace that’s open, some airlines might deem it as not safe,” Sobie explained.
Uncertainty Persists in the Sky and on the Ground
Flight disruptions aren’t easily reversed. Even after conflict subsides, the return to old routes can be slow. The Ukraine war began in February 2022, and much of the associated airspace remains closed today. Conflicts like the recent Iran-Israel tensions may flare and cool quickly, but their operational consequences linger.
Short-haul routes in Central Asia and the Middle East have been especially impacted, with some flights losing access to airspace that once constituted more than half their journey. These shifts result in longer flight times and higher fares — costs often absorbed by airlines due to the inability to adjust prices for tickets booked months in advance.
In this uncertain environment, airlines remain at the mercy of events on the ground, even at 40,000 feet. As aviation consultants warn, the skies above are now a mirror of the fractured world below.