A New Variant Gains Ground Across the Globe
A new subvariant of Omicron, labeled XFG and nicknamed “Stratus,” is rapidly spreading across countries like the United States, United Kingdom, India and Spain. Recently added to the World Health Organization’s watchlist, XFG has shown significant growth in its global presence, displacing earlier variants such as Nimbus. This rise comes amid a global context of declining testing and weakened public health monitoring, making the spread harder to track in real time.
Genetically, XFG is the result of a recombination between two existing Omicron lineages, which gives it characteristics that help it evade immune responses. Early data indicates that the variant is nearly twice as resistant to neutralization compared to its predecessor LP.8.1.1. However, despite its ability to bypass immune defenses, XFG has a lower efficiency in attaching to human cells. This technical limitation might slow its transmission in the long run, although its current trajectory suggests otherwise.
The variant now represents over 30 percent of sequenced COVID-19 samples in the United States and more than 20 percent worldwide. This pattern confirms a new phase of the pandemic that continues to unfold with little public awareness or policy response.
The Real Infection Numbers Are Much Higher Than Reported
Although official figures still point to modest daily case counts, new data methods reveal a far more alarming scenario. Wastewater surveillance, currently the most accurate way to assess infection trends, indicates that daily infections in the U.S. are likely between 300,000 and 600,000. This translates to over 10 million monthly infections nationally. When extrapolated to the global scale, current transmission rates suggest that between 216 million and 432 million people worldwide are getting infected every month.
This rise in cases is not just a statistical concern. The U.S. is already seeing between 800 and 1,300 excess deaths every week linked directly to COVID-19. These numbers resemble the most severe flu seasons, though COVID continues to be significantly more lethal. The infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID still ranges between 0.3 and 0.7 percent, far exceeding the 0.03 percent typically seen with seasonal flu.
Long COVID and Lingering Effects Remain a Major Concern
While most COVID-19 cases resolve without complications, the long-term effects continue to impact millions. Known as Long COVID, this condition can cause persistent symptoms like brain fog, fatigue, respiratory issues, and organ damage. It is estimated that 5 to 10 percent of those infected develop long-lasting complications, even among individuals who experienced mild initial symptoms.
Given the scale of ongoing infections, even these relatively small percentages mean tens of millions of people are dealing with chronic health issues. Though most patients recover within a year, about 15 percent continue to suffer beyond that, putting additional strain on healthcare systems already under pressure.
Research has also linked past COVID-19 infections to elevated risks of strokes, heart attacks, kidney damage and mental health disorders. The ripple effects of the pandemic are far from over and could shape public health outcomes for years.
A Public Health System Under Siege
The global impact of XFG is being compounded by domestic policy changes in the United States that severely weaken the country’s ability to respond. A sweeping wave of layoffs has removed around 25 percent of staff from key agencies such as the CDC and FDA. Simultaneously, drastic budget cuts to the National Institutes of Health and the CDC threaten to halt essential research and disease prevention programs.
In parallel, the political messaging from national leaders aims to declare the pandemic over and shift the narrative toward unrelated geopolitical conflicts. This approach not only downplays the ongoing health crisis but actively dismantles the infrastructure needed to manage it. The United States has also cut funding to international health organizations and withdrawn from key alliances, leaving the global health network fragmented and less prepared for the next emergency.
The combination of surging infections, weakening healthcare systems and rising long-term complications paints a troubling picture. While the world attempts to move forward, the virus continues to evolve—and XFG is proving that COVID-19 is far from a thing of the past.